Three scenarios for Da Nang’s economic growth

The Da Nang government has issued a plan for the city’s socio-economic recovery with a focus on adopting a flexible approach to the COVID-19 pandemic based on adaptation pathways to ensure effective control of the pandemic. The plan is split in three phases. Phase 1 will begin in the fourth quarter of 2021 with the implementation of measures to allow adaptability and flexibility in dealing with COVID-19 in order to ensure effective control of the pandemic while driving socio-economic recovery. Da Nang’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 is expected to be equal to the figure in 2020. Phase 2 will last during the first half of 2022 with the adoption of appropriate measures to drive socio-economic recovery at different COVID-19 alert levels. Phase 3 will begin in July 2022 and end in 2023 with the implementation of effective measures to promote socio-economic development. The city has outlined three distinct scenarios for economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2021 and the whole year of 2021. Under the first scenario, Da Nang’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 is forecast to decrease by 2.33% from the same period in 2020 while growth for the whole year is predicted to decline by 1.5% compared to 2020, provided that the pandemic is still complicated. Under the second scenario, the city’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 is forecast to be equivalent to 1.25% of the figure recorded in the same period of 2020 while growth for the whole year is predicted to decline by 0.51% compared to 2020, provided that the city moves to low risk level 1 for COVID-19. Under the third scenario, the city’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2021 is forecast to be equivalent to 3.46% of the figure recorded in the same period of 2020 while growth for the whole year is predicted to rise by 0.11% compared to 2020, provided that the COVID-19 outbreak is brought under control, and the city effectively manages the pandemic. Da Nang has also developed three scenarios for the economic outlook in 2022, and set out strategic orientations for 2023. Pessimistic scenario: The city’s GDP in 2022 is forecast to be equivalent to 4.9% of the figure recorded in the same period of 2021, provided that the COVID-19 outbreak is brought under control but the international and national economic recovery is still slow, some supply chains are still limited, and the number of visitor arrivals in the city is lower than expected. Middle scenario: The city’s GDP in 2022 is forecast to be equivalent to 6.2% of the figure recorded in the same period of 2021, provided that the COVID-19 outbreak is successfully brought under control, the international and national economies are recovering from the crisis, some service industries begin to develop stably, and the number of visitors to the city tends to increase. Optimistic scenario: The city’s GDP in 2022 is forecast to be equivalent to 8.11% of the figure recorded in the same period of 2021, provided that the COVID-19 outbreak is successfully brought under control, the international and national economies return to normal, some service industries thrive, and the city sees a significant increase in number of visitor arrivals. In its efforts to successfully implement the economic recovery plan, Da Nang will use its budget and mobilise local financial resources to fight COVID-19 while supporting businesses to drive their economic recovery from the crisis, and ensuring social protection to all citizens, especially those affected by the pandemic. Source: Da Nang Today TỔNG ĐÀI DỊCH VỤ CÔNG: (0236) 1022 hoặc *1022, miễn phí phục vụ   1. Đường dây nóng tiếp nhận ý kiến phản ánh, góp ý của tổ chức, công dân và chuyển đến cơ quan chức năng xử lý 2. Hướng dẫn, giải đáp quy định, chính sách, thông tin kinh tế – xã hội 3. Hướng dẫn thực hiện thủ tục hành chính, dịch vụ công trực tuyến 4. Cung cấp thông tin phòng chống thiên tai, bão lũ 5. Cung cấp dịch vụ Tổng đài CSKH, nhắn tin CSKH, truyền thông, sự kiện và các dịch vụ tư vấn khác…